AIC/Unbiased.co.uk Joint Poll of Fund Managers and IFAs:
- IFAs and fund managers generally optimistic about markets’ prospects
- Credit crunch to continue, but fund managers worry more about GDP Growth
- IFAs favour Resources, fund managers keep their faith in Blue Chips
- Fund managers favour Asia Pacific, IFAs keen on Emerging Markets
The Association of Investment Companies (AIC) and Unbiased.co.uk have published the results of their fifth joint annual poll of investment company fund managers and IFAs, gauging their views for the year ahead. Unbiased.co.uk received responses from over 250 of its member IFAs, whilst the AIC spoke to fund managers representing 17bn of assets – just over a fifth of the AIC’s Membership by assets.
Both camps are generally optimistic about the prospects for 2008, however in keeping with last year, fund managers were the more cautious group. Some 77% of IFAs expect markets in general to rise next year compared to 61% of fund managers, with the more bearish fund managers expecting a bumpy ride for equities next year. Blue chips were tipped as the sector most likely to outperform in 2008 by the largest proportion of fund managers with IFAs, in contrast opting for Resources. IFAs have tipped Emerging Markets as the best performing region in 2008 and fund managers favoured the Asia Pacific region excluding Japan.
FTSE Prospects
Whilst IFAs and investment company fund managers had different views on which sectors and countries were likely to perform best in 2008, their views on the prospects for the FTSE-All Share were very much aligned, with 44% of fund managers and 45% of IFAs expecting the market to close next year at between 6500-7000 points. A bullish 14% of IFAs and 17% of fund managers expect the FTSE All-Share to climb between 7000-7500 points, although there were plenty of bears too – 11% of fund managers and 8% of IFAs think the FTSE will end 2008 at 5500-6000 points.
Where do you think the market will close at the end of 2008?
<3000 | 3000-3500 | 3500- 4000 | 4000- 4500 | 4500- 5000 | 5000-5500 | |
Fund Managers | - | - | 6% | 6% | - | - |
IFAs | - | 1% | - | 1% | - | 1% |
5500-6000 | 6000-6500 | 6500-7000 | 7000-7500 | 7500> | |
Fund Managers | 11% | 17% | 44% | 17% | - |
IFAs | 8% | 28% | 45% | 14% | 2% |
Credit crunch
Whilst both fund managers and IFAs agree that the credit crunch will continue into 2008 (94% of fund managers and 89% of IFAs), it was the second most commonly cited worry for fund managers, who were more likely to worry about lower GDP growth (33%) than the credit crunch (29%). Meanwhile the credit crunch was the most commonly cited worry for 46% of IFAs, followed by lack of consumer spending (19%). When fund managers were asked what gave them the greatest cause for optimism in 2008, attractive valuations was the most commonly cited factor (23%), followed by falling interest rates and better than expected global growth, especially in Asia (both 18%).
What is the single biggest threat to equities in 2008?
Credit crunch | Rising oil prices | Valuations ex-pensive | Lack of consumer spending | Low GDP Growth | |
Fund Managers | 29% | - | - | 14% | 33% |
IFAs | 46% | 13% | 1% | 19% | 8% |
High Inflation | Threats of/acts of terrorism | Improve-ment in bond market | Rising interest rates | Other | |
Fund Managers | 19% | - | - | - | 5% |
IFAs | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 5% |
Oil versus blue chips
Last year, IFAs were most likely to tip smaller companies to outperform whilst fund managers tended to favour blue chips. This year, IFAs tended to tip Resources (including oil) as the sector most likely to outperform in 2008 (21%), followed by Blue Chips (15%) and alternative energy and utilities (both 11%). Meanwhile, fund managers tended to favour blue chips for a second year running (29%), followed by Resources (including oil) (13%), and bravely, Financials (13%).
Which sectors do you think will outperform in 2008?
Blue Chips | Tech | Manu-facturing | Smaller Co's | Utilities | |
Fund Managers | 29% | 10% | - | 10% | 6% |
IFAs | 15% | 5% | 2% | 8% | 11% |
Resou-rces | Media | Financials | Property | Private equity | |
Fund Managers | 13% | - | 13% | 3% | 3% |
IFAs | 21% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 3% |
Hedge Funds | Alt Energy | Ethical funds | Other | |
Fund Managers | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
IFAs | 4% | 11% | 10% | 1% |
Globetrotting
The most commonly cited region to outperform amongst fund managers in 2008 was the Asia Pacific excluding Japan (27%), followed, in equal measure, by Japan, the UK, and perhaps surprisingly, the US (all 14%). IFAs favoured Emerging Markets (35%), the Asia Pacific Excluding Japan region (18%) and Europe (17%).
Which geographic regions do you expect to perform best in 2008?
Asia Pacific Ex Japan | Asia Pacific Inc Japan | Japan | Emerging Markets | UK | |
Fund Managers | 27% | 5% | 14% | 9% | 14% |
IFAs | 18% | 4% | 3% | 35% | 6% |
US | Europe | Latin America | Other | |
Fund Managers | 14% | 9% | 5% | 5% |
IFAs | 3% | 17 | 11% | 3% |
Changing gear?
Fund managers were divided about what they plan to do with their gearing levels in the coming months, with some 44% taking a ‘wait and see’ approach. Over a fifth (22%) said they had no plans to change gearing levels, whilst a bullish 17% plan to actively increase gearing. A further 11% plan to decrease gearing, and 6% plan to offset some of their current gearing by increasing their cash/fixed interest positions.
Annabel Brodie-Smith, Communications Director, Association of Investment Companies (AIC) said: “After a challenging year for equities, it is encouraging to see that optimism is generally prevailing for 2008 amongst IFAs and fund managers, although investors may well want to prepare for a bumpy ride along the way. There are some interesting differences of opinion with fund managers tipping blue chips as the top sector for 2008 whereas IFAs favour resources. IFAs and fund managers both favour regions in 2008 which have performed well this year, with IFAs opting for Emerging Markets and fund managers choosing the Asia Pacific.
“In the very volatile markets which we’ve seen recently regular investing can be a sensible tool as it helps smooth out some of those highs and lows in the price of shares. Known as pound cost averaging, it means investors buy fewer shares when prices are high, and more when prices are low, removing some of the worry of market timing.
“Nevertheless, there are a number of investment company fund managers who are finding many opportunities amidst the current backdrop, with some taking the view that the pessimism has been overdone. Whilst it’s interesting to gauge the views of investment professionals, markets are impossible to predict and one year’s best performing sector can sometimes become the following year’s worst performer. So it’s important to take a long-term view, ensure you have a balanced portfolio and not to get carried away by the latest ‘hot’ sector.”
David Elms, Chief Executive, Unbiased.co.uk, said: “It is great to see that IFAs and fund managers still remain positive about the market outlook for 2008, despite the recent stockmarket movements. However, regardless of market fluctuations, consumers should ensure that they have their portfolio reviewed by an independent financial adviser on a regular basis to make sure their investment goals are being met.”
Fund manager quotes
Jeremy Tigue, Manager, Foreign & Colonial Investment Trust PLC said: “While the current credit crunch is a major problem for markets it is starting to produce some mouth watering opportunities for investors who can look ahead to the end of 2008.”
Tom Walker, Manager, Martin Currie Portfolio Investment Trust plc said: “Concern about bank balance sheets and credit quality is likely to persist into 2008; I think the lower levels of volatility we had become accustomed to in recent years are behind us.”
Katherine Garrett-Cox, Chief Investment Officer, Alliance Trust PLC said: “It will not be an easy year with the scale of the slowdown in the US yet to become apparent. We expect a slowing from China post the Beijing Olympics and Europe is also expected to soften. The consumer, particularly in the West, will have a tough time, now exacerbated by the problems in the financial sectors, and though the rest of corporate sector goes into the slowdown relatively strongly financed, profits will be under pressure in certain areas. A concern with Financials is the amounts that will have to come back onto balance sheets, however the outlook is cheered by the prospect of lower interest rates. Inflation is becoming more entrenched which does call for some realism on how far rates can fall, and for how long it will be kept at lower levels. Modest advances in the markets are possible but the outlook remains uncertain.”
Jim Horsburgh, Chief Executive, Witan Investment Trust plc said: “Whilst the outlook may be somewhat turbulent over the next twelve months, equity investors can take some comfort that equities do not look expensive relative to other assets. However expectations for corporate earnings are probably too high and there is a danger of the spectre of inflation returning.”
Bruce Stout, Manager, Murray International Trust PLC said: “With the effects of the subprime debacle weighing heavily on global economic growth, the extent of CDO-related losses still unknown, and M&A activity waning, global equities are likely to continue to be volatile as we enter 2008, albeit easing monetary policy should help. Around the world, opportunities to invest in quality companies with healthy balance sheets and good management continue. For our part, we will use any price dips to add to existing holdings, or indeed to introduce new companies to our portfolios. We expect 2008 to be tougher for earnings, but Murray International contains a diversified range of quality stocks, and we’re relatively optimistic that these companies can produce decent returns in 2008.”
Dr Slim Feriani, Manager, Advance Developing Markets Trust plc said: “We subscribe to a particular form of emerging market macro decoupling where we believe emerging market economies will slow down much less than developed ones. Thus, we expect developed economies to grow barely at 2% in 2008 versus a still healthy 7.5% for emerging economies. We believe this ongoing superior economic growth is likely to continue to be reflected in superior earnings growth and equity returns from emerging markets versus developed markets.”
Angela Lascelles, Manager, Value and Income Trust plc said: “Investment trust discounts have widened to make some trusts very attractive.”
- Ends -
For further information, please contact:
Annabel Brodie-Smith Jemma Jackson
Communications Director PR Manager
AIC AIC
020 7282 5580 020 7282 5583
07798 52 44 49 07776 204 610
David Elms Anna Schirmer/Jonathon Grove
Chief Executive Lansons Communications
Unbiased.co.uk 020 7294 3682
020 7833 3131
For expert comment or case studies from over 200 media-friendly IFAs, journalists should call Unbiased.co.uk’s Media Services hotline on
020 7294 3682 or search online at www.unbiased.co.uk/media
Notes to Editors
1. The Association of Investment Companies was founded in 1932 to represent the interests of the investment trust industry – the oldest form of collective investment. Today, the AIC represents a broad range of closed ended investment companies, incorporating investment trusts and other closed ended investment companies and VCTs. The AIC’s members believe that the industry is best served if it is united and speaks with one voice. The AIC’s mission statement is to help Members add value for shareholders over the longer term. The AIC has 328 members and the industry has total assets of approximately 97 billion.
2. Independent Financial Adviser Promotion
Unbiased.co.uk is the consumer brand of IFA Promotion, the organisation established in 1989 to promote the value and accessibility of independent financial advice to the public. It represents around 9,000 firms of independent financial advisers across the UK, incorporating over 17,000 registered individuals. These individuals hold over 22,000 incremental qualifications which are each individually verified by the awarding body. IFA Promotion welcomes the prominent display of incremental qualifications and further developments into the credentials of independent financial advice.
IFA Promotion is sponsored by 28 leading financial institutions, and in the past 12 months, over 575,000 consumers and businesses used unbiased.co.uk to find local independent financial advice.
IFA Promotion believes Independent financial advice should be:
Affordable. The option to take independent financial advice should be available, by right, to all- not just the wealthiest in society.
Convenient. IFAs should be available in the location of the consumer’s choice, wherever they live in the UK.
Transparent. It must be clearly transparent to consumers who is able to offer independent financial advice and who is not.
3. Independent Financial Adviser Promotion’s sponsors
Aberdeen Asset Management | Lincoln Financial Group |
Abbey | Lutine Assurance Services |
AEGON Scottish Equitable Plc | National Savings & Investments |
Alliance Trust | New Star Investment Funds |
AXA Life | Norwich Union Life |
Bright Grey | Prudential |
BUPA Health Services | Scottish Life |
Canada Life Ltd | Scottish Life International |
The Children’s Mutual | Scottish Widows Plc |
Clerical Medical Investment | Skandia UK Group |
Defaqto | Standard Life Assurance Company |
Friends Provident | Tomorrow |
Invesco Perpetual | Unum |
Legal & General | Zurich Intermediary Group |
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